tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 2h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 09:30 → IAH 13:37DL 1532 7h 22m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 6h 14m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 8h 36m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 3h 10m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 7h 39m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 3h 05m Chicago ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813 9h 11m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:37 → MSP 16:58DL 2946 1h 42m Minneapolis MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683 6h 58m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 3h 15m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 7h 40m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:28 → DEN 18:31UA 431 1h 57m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 6h 31m 96% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON