Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	3h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	9h 32m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632	8h 34m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	3h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	9h 00m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	3h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	9h 34m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:37 → MSP 16:58DL 2946	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 20:28 → JFK 00:05 +1DL 2692	8h 28m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	9h 50m	96%	77%
Alaska Details →	BZN 10:24 → SEA 11:24AS 2141 · flown by Horizon	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 13:27 → JFK 21:26AS 34	9h 02m	98%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON