Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1928 at 06:59, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1928 Southwest	BZN 06:59	LAS 08:02	2%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 51m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:25 → LAS 08:50DL 1698	4h 35m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	7h 26m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → LAS 23:40DL 1662	5h 10m	99%	86%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	2h 58m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 54m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:37 → MSP 16:58DL 2946	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 18:59 → LAS 20:20DL 2246	7h 43m	98%	86%
United Details →	BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → LAS 23:10UA 406	7h 53m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	1h 51m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:30 → LAS 15:55DL 1672	4h 42m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m Seattle	SEA 11:05 → LAS 13:42DL 2880	6h 17m	96%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON