tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:37, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:37 → MSP 16:58DL 2946 3h 00m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 8h 03m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 49m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 8h 49m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 25m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 16m 94% 70%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 46m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 7h 03m 84% 65%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 15m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 7h 04m 91% 61%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:39 → ORD 17:45AA 1501 2h 44m Chicago ORD 20:29 → LGA 23:56AA 1166 8h 17m 96% 61%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 3h 48m Chicago ORD 20:45 → LGA 23:54UA 2605 9h 06m 96% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON