Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 1678 Delta Flight history →	BZN 06:00	MSP 09:11	4%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 2946 Delta Flight history →	BZN 13:37	MSP 16:58	6%	3%	0.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	5h 14m	99%	94%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 16m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 10m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	9h 18m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	3h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	7h 41m	99%	86%
United Details →	BZN 16:28 → DEN 18:31UA 431	2h 23m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	6h 31m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BZN 15:32 → SEA 16:32DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	1h 33m Seattle	SEA 18:05 → MSP 23:30DL 949	6h 58m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Seattle	SEA 12:10 → MSP 17:28DL 536	8h 03m	98%	83%
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	7h 53m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON