tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 348 United Flight history → BZN 11:38 EWR 18:00 25% 11% 1.3% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 9h 32m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:37 → MSP 16:58DL 2946 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 20:28 → JFK 00:05 +1DL 2692 8h 28m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 3h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697 9h 34m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632 8h 34m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:07UA 741 1h 53m Los Angeles LAX 21:00 → EWR 05:18 +1UA 2397 9h 52m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 8h 30m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 43m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 9h 00m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Seattle SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415 9h 50m 97% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON