tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 350 at 15:42, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 350 Alaska BZN 15:42 PDX 16:32 7% 3% 1.0% no record
AS 2021 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record BZN 16:04 PDX 16:50 16% 5% 2.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 07:45 → PDX 08:37DL 1203 4h 22m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 47m Minneapolis MSP 10:58 → PDX 12:39DL 1661 7h 39m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:37 → MSP 16:58DL 2946 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151 7h 38m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 3h 03m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 7h 39m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 00m San Francisco SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413 7h 31m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 1h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244 4h 56m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:32 → SEA 16:32DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 2h 24m Seattle SEA 18:56 → PDX 19:59DL 3997 · flown by SkyWest 5h 27m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 3h 10m Denver DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498 7h 49m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON