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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 08:05 → PHX 08:44DL 1447 4h 29m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 2h 21m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 7h 46m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 5h 01m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:37 → MSP 16:58DL 2946 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 7h 29m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 29m Denver DEN 09:53 → PHX 10:56UA 1782 5h 26m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 15:20 → PHX 16:04DL 1738 4h 51m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 10m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → PHX 22:58UA 1653 7h 41m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:28 → DEN 18:31UA 431 2h 22m Denver DEN 20:53 → PHX 21:56UA 1194 6h 28m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON