Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1590 CAE 11:57 → ATL 13:14 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3193 CAE 15:51 → ATL 16:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1590 Delta Flight history →	CAE 11:57	ATL 13:14	4%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 3061 Delta Flight history →	CAE 06:53	ATL 08:09	4%	2%	0.5%	93%
DL 3038 Delta Flight history →	CAE 05:35	ATL 06:40	5%	2%	0.5%	95%
DL 2944 Delta Flight history →	CAE 13:47	ATL 14:56	7%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 3032 Delta Flight history →	CAE 18:23	ATL 19:40	8%	2%	0.5%	78%
DL 3193 Delta Flight history →	CAE 15:51	ATL 16:59	10%	2%	0.6%	77%
DL 5091 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 11:58	ATL 13:10	11%	2%	0.0%	89%
DL 5061 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 06:40	ATL 07:54	21%	15%	3.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON