Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 5603 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 5603 CAE 06:00 → DCA 07:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 5095 CAE 18:55 → DCA 20:36 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5603 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 06:00	DCA 07:40	11%	5%	2.1%	88%
AA 5107 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 10:39	DCA 12:19	22%	8%	1.8%	76%
AA 5095 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 18:55	DCA 20:36	25%	9%	2.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON