tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
PT 5794 Piedmont CAE 07:08 PHL 09:07 7% 2% 0.8% no record
PT 5839 Piedmont CAE 15:27 PHL 17:32 10% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CAE 05:35 → ATL 06:40DL 3038 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 5h 22m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → CAE 06:53 → ATL 08:09DL 3061 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 31m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CAE 18:23 → ATL 19:40DL 3032 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 36m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → CAE 10:02 → CLT 10:59AA 5956 · flown by Piedmont 2h 03m Charlotte CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573 4h 48m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → CAE 17:18 → CLT 18:15AA 5941 · flown by Piedmont 3h 37m Charlotte CLT 21:52 → PHL 23:40AA 1827 6h 22m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → CAE 11:57 → ATL 13:14DL 1590 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 6h 15m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → CAE 15:51 → ATL 16:59DL 3193 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065 5h 29m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → CAE 17:13 → ORD 18:44AA 4183 · flown by Envoy 1h 30m Chicago ORD 20:14 → PHL 23:34AA 532 6h 21m 93% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON