Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: PT 6092 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day PT 6092 CHA 05:26 → CLT 06:48 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5950 CHA 17:08 → CLT 18:26 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6092 Piedmont	CHA 05:26	CLT 06:48	9%	5%	1.3%	no record
OH 5130 PSA	CHA 16:07	CLT 17:28	9%	5%	0.7%	no record
PT 5962 Piedmont	CHA 09:58	CLT 11:16	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
PT 5850 Piedmont	CHA 07:56	CLT 09:14	13%	5%	1.3%	no record
PT 5826 Piedmont	CHA 14:10	CLT 15:28	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 6004 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CHA 12:25	CLT 13:43	16%	5%	1.0%	91%
AA 5964 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CHA 19:02	CLT 20:20	17%	6%	1.2%	92%
AA 5950 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CHA 17:08	CLT 18:26	19%	6%	1.0%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON