Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 5084 at 06:58, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5084 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHA 06:58	DCA 08:47	8%	6%	0.8%	100%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	1h 21m Charlotte	CLT 07:53 → DCA 09:37AA 1581	4h 37m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:41 → ATL 07:42DL 3057	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	6h 06m	100%	89%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 10:14 → DCA 13:19UA 1904	7h 19m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	5h 28m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:04 → LGA 08:15DL 4890 · flown by Endeavor	3h 05m New York	LGA 11:20 → DCA 12:42DL 5749 · flown by Republic	6h 38m	97%	86%
American Details →	CHA 06:04 → DFW 07:24AA 426	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:34AA 2399	7h 30m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:12 → ATL 09:13DL 3039	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	6h 44m	100%	84%
United Details →	CHA 08:58 → IAH 10:04UA 5086 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	7h 05m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON