Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4652 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHA 05:58	DTW 07:51	5%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 5117 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHA 15:00	DTW 16:55	11%	4%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHA 06:41 → ATL 07:42DL 3057	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 15m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	CHA 10:09 → ATL 11:12DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	5h 33m	97%	88%
United Details →	CHA 06:05 → ORD 06:57UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	3h 53m Chicago	ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest	7h 22m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 14:50 → ATL 15:52DL 3141	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	5h 23m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 13:10 → ATL 14:08DL 1737	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	6h 04m	98%	86%
American Details →	CHA 17:08 → CLT 18:26AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont	2h 20m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	5h 26m	96%	78%
American Details →	CHA 12:25 → CLT 13:43AA 6004 · flown by Piedmont	1h 53m Charlotte	CLT 15:36 → DTW 17:26AA 1134	5h 01m	90%	76%
United Details →	CHA 13:56 → ORD 14:53UA 4571 · flown by GoJet	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 18:35 → DTW 20:44UA 642	6h 48m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CHA 18:04 → EWR 20:31UA 4413 · flown by GoJet	51m Newark	EWR 21:22 → DTW 23:31UA 3412 · flown by Republic	5h 27m	73%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON