Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 4413 at 18:04, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 4413 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	CHA 18:04	EWR 20:31	24%	9%	1.2%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHA 06:41 → ATL 07:42DL 3057	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 40m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CHA 05:58 → DTW 07:51DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 24m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	5h 58m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:12 → ATL 09:13DL 3039	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 04m	100%	86%
United Details →	CHA 06:05 → ORD 06:57UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	3h 54m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	8h 12m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	CHA 10:09 → ATL 11:12DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	5h 15m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	CHA 14:50 → ATL 15:52DL 3141	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	6h 04m	98%	77%
United Details →	CHA 16:48 → IAH 18:25UA 5091 · flown by SkyWest	1h 30m Houston	IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444	7h 49m	90%	75%
United Details →	CHA 08:58 → IAH 10:04UA 5086 · flown by SkyWest	1h 56m Houston	IAH 12:00 → EWR 16:46UA 2371	7h 48m	94%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON