Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5086 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 08:58	IAH 10:04	15%	8%	0.6%	62%
UA 5091 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 16:48	IAH 18:25	18%	10%	0.6%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Chattanooga). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHA 06:41 → ATL 07:42DL 3057	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	5h 33m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:12 → ATL 09:13DL 3039	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	6h 21m	100%	90%
American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	1h 59m Charlotte	CLT 08:31 → IAH 10:15AA 2445	6h 15m	100%	88%
American Details →	CHA 06:04 → DFW 07:24AA 426	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:11 → IAH 11:26AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	6h 22m	98%	88%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535	6h 51m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	CHA 14:50 → ATL 15:52DL 3141	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAH 19:39DL 2327	5h 49m	99%	87%
American Details →	CHA 08:18 → CLT 09:55AA 6105 · flown by Piedmont	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 12:30 → IAH 14:03AA 398	6h 45m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 10:01 → ATL 11:02DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:51DL 1223	6h 50m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON