Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 28 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 246 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 246 ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4984 MDW 19:09 → SFO 21:36 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 246 United Flight history →	ORD 06:10	SFO 08:51	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 2885 American	ORD 06:49	SFO 09:45	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1116 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	SFO 10:19	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
WN 3502 Southwest	MDW 10:54	SJC 13:19	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2779 Southwest	MDW 10:15	OAK 12:35	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1851 American	ORD 09:49	SFO 12:50	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 307 United	ORD 09:07	SJC 11:28	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 342 United	ORD 08:28	SFO 10:51	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4843 Southwest	MDW 10:29	SFO 12:53	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 543 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	SFO 13:14	11%	4%	0.6%	63%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	ORD 21:35	SFO 00:32	11%	3%	0.6%	78%
AA 3115 American Flight history →	ORD 08:29	SFO 11:05	12%	3%	0.7%	93%
WN 3810 Southwest	MDW 20:29	SJC 22:57	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1577 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	SFO 17:19	14%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 1097 United Flight history →	ORD 12:33	SFO 14:51	14%	4%	0.6%	79%
UA 2437 United	ORD 16:21	SFO 19:03	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1334 United Flight history →	ORD 15:26	SFO 18:18	15%	5%	0.6%	66%
UA 649 United	ORD 19:38	SFO 23:17	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1413 Southwest	MDW 20:31	OAK 22:55	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2817 American	ORD 13:31	SFO 16:29	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 481 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	SJC 22:43	15%	5%	0.7%	67%
AA 3202 American	ORD 21:05	SFO 23:43	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1253 American Flight history →	ORD 15:18	SFO 17:58	18%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 3141 American Flight history →	ORD 17:08	SFO 19:47	18%	5%	0.7%	57%
AA 2856 American	ORD 19:03	SFO 22:03	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2179 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SFO 21:18	19%	5%	0.6%	48%
UA 8195 United	ORD 20:30	SFO 23:06	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4984 Southwest	MDW 19:09	SFO 21:36	19%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	59m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	6h 18m	97%	85%
United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	48m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 20m	92%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON