Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2706 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2706 MDW 05:56 → DAL 08:13 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1559 ORD 18:19 → DFW 20:56 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2706 Southwest	MDW 05:56	DAL 08:13	3%	1%	1.3%	no record
AA 760 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DFW 07:30	9%	3%	1.7%	89%
WN 966 Southwest	MDW 13:59	DAL 16:12	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 199 Southwest	MDW 08:16	DAL 10:27	11%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 1356 Southwest	MDW 15:14	DAL 17:26	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2711 Southwest	MDW 19:11	DAL 21:31	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2896 American Flight history →	ORD 06:04	DFW 08:36	13%	4%	1.4%	86%
WN 1148 Southwest	MDW 11:14	DAL 13:24	15%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 539 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	DFW 09:58	16%	6%	1.0%	82%
WN 1005 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:07	DAL 22:23	16%	4%	0.8%	50%
UA 441 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	DFW 13:12	18%	7%	0.8%	77%
F9 1341 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:02	DFW 08:31	19%	5%	2.1%	60%
UA 528 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	DFW 11:28	20%	7%	1.0%	79%
AA 1360 American	ORD 07:04	DFW 09:28	21%	6%	1.6%	no record
UA 2290 United Flight history →	ORD 13:05	DFW 15:48	22%	9%	0.8%	76%
AA 1555 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	DFW 11:04	23%	6%	1.6%	71%
UA 793 United Flight history →	ORD 15:40	DFW 18:22	23%	11%	0.8%	68%
AA 1106 American Flight history →	ORD 11:02	DFW 13:37	24%	6%	1.3%	41%
AA 1459 American	ORD 09:42	DFW 12:20	24%	8%	1.4%	no record
UA 1673 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	DFW 22:36	25%	12%	1.1%	65%
AA 3085 American	ORD 12:15	DFW 14:46	26%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 2281 American Flight history →	ORD 21:23	DFW 23:49	26%	10%	2.3%	63%
UA 309 United	ORD 14:31	DFW 17:01	27%	9%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3794 Envoy	ORD 19:48	DFW 22:17	27%	6%	3.3%	no record
AA 2499 American Flight history →	ORD 16:54	DFW 19:36	29%	11%	1.9%	56%
AA 2451 American	ORD 13:42	DFW 16:05	32%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 2429 American Flight history →	ORD 14:58	DFW 17:24	32%	10%	1.3%	73%
AA 2531 American Flight history →	ORD 15:58	DFW 18:22	33%	10%	1.6%	73%
AA 1559 American Flight history →	ORD 18:19	DFW 20:56	35%	15%	4.3%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON