Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3950 at 07:54 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3950 MDW 07:54 → HOU 10:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2788 ORD 18:54 → IAH 21:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3950 Southwest	MDW 07:54	HOU 10:21	8%	2%	1.1%	no record
UA 1172 United	ORD 05:30	IAH 08:05	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4709 Southwest	MDW 10:28	HOU 12:54	12%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 298 Southwest	MDW 14:04	HOU 16:31	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1231 United Flight history →	ORD 07:35	IAH 10:36	14%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 2504 American Flight history →	ORD 06:55	IAH 09:51	14%	4%	1.2%	75%
UA 2228 United	ORD 06:17	IAH 08:48	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2665 United Flight history →	ORD 21:40	IAH 00:34	17%	6%	1.0%	76%
WN 2733 Southwest	MDW 17:11	HOU 19:39	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1448 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	IAH 15:40	18%	7%	0.7%	89%
WN 207 Southwest	MDW 20:29	HOU 22:58	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2767 United	ORD 10:46	IAH 13:36	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 714 United Flight history →	ORD 16:05	IAH 19:10	20%	10%	0.7%	74%
UA 2813 United Flight history →	ORD 20:02	IAH 22:59	21%	10%	0.9%	56%
UA 535 United Flight history →	ORD 08:51	IAH 11:51	21%	6%	0.8%	80%
UA 2062 United Flight history →	ORD 14:26	IAH 17:19	22%	8%	0.7%	76%
AA 3322 American Flight history →	ORD 10:32	IAH 13:29	24%	6%	1.0%	86%
F9 3135 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 07:36	IAH 10:18	24%	7%	2.0%	78%
AA 3144 American Flight history →	ORD 21:07	IAH 23:51	27%	11%	1.7%	53%
AA 2302 American	ORD 13:21	IAH 16:18	27%	11%	1.6%	no record
AA 2243 American	ORD 15:24	IAH 18:14	28%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 1496 American	ORD 17:04	IAH 19:58	31%	14%	3.9%	no record
UA 1921 United	ORD 18:48	IAH 21:23	33%	12%	1.9%	no record
UA 2788 United	ORD 18:54	IAH 21:29	33%	12%	3.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON