tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 38 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 607 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 607 ORD 06:00 → LAX 08:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1179 ORD 17:50 → SNA 20:25 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 607 American Flight history → ORD 06:00 LAX 08:20 11% 3% 1.2% 88%
WN 865 Southwest MDW 10:19 LAX 12:43 11% 3% 0.8% no record
AA 1009 American ORD 06:59 LAX 09:33 11% 4% 1.2% no record
UA 2373 United Flight history → ORD 06:00 LAX 08:25 12% 3% 0.7% 89%
WN 4772 Southwest MDW 12:20 LAX 14:48 12% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 2361 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 LAX 09:33 14% 5% 0.8% 90%
WN 1241 Southwest MDW 17:08 BUR 19:37 15% 5% 0.8% no record
DL 1556 Delta Flight history → ORD 07:29 LAX 10:00 15% 3% 0.7% 80%
WN 851 Southwest MDW 10:09 LGB 12:30 16% 2% 0.9% no record
WN 2784 Southwest MDW 17:34 ONT 19:57 17% 4% 0.7% no record
DL 967 Delta Flight history → ORD 14:42 LAX 17:14 18% 7% 0.6% 68%
UA 1363 United Flight history → ORD 13:00 LAX 15:34 18% 8% 0.7% 83%
UA 374 United Flight history → ORD 14:30 LAX 17:05 19% 9% 0.6% 80%
WN 4743 Southwest MDW 20:42 LAX 23:05 19% 5% 0.6% no record
AA 3008 American Flight history → ORD 12:09 LAX 14:37 19% 7% 1.0% 79%
AA 2903 American ORD 13:50 LAX 16:25 19% 9% 1.1% no record
UA 2170 United ORD 11:02 LAX 13:07 20% 6% 0.7% no record
UA 1304 United Flight history → ORD 08:40 SNA 11:21 21% 5% 0.8% 79%
UA 576 United Flight history → ORD 15:47 LAX 18:20 21% 10% 0.7% 76%
UA 2499 United Flight history → ORD 20:18 LAX 22:55 21% 10% 0.8% 58%
UA 2814 United Flight history → ORD 08:48 LAX 11:26 21% 6% 0.8% 82%
AA 1979 American Flight history → ORD 09:00 LAX 11:21 22% 6% 1.2% 74%
WN 997 Southwest MDW 17:42 LAX 19:51 22% 5% 0.7% no record
UA 542 United ORD 14:52 LAX 17:07 22% 9% 0.6% no record
AA 1920 American ORD 08:12 SNA 10:49 22% 4% 1.2% no record
AA 2012 American Flight history → ORD 08:10 LAX 10:35 23% 4% 1.3% 70%
AA 1916 American ORD 11:56 SNA 14:27 23% 5% 1.0% no record
AA 1114 American ORD 21:12 LAX 23:31 24% 8% 1.2% no record
UA 2494 United ORD 16:56 LAX 19:22 24% 10% 0.6% no record
UA 308 United Flight history → ORD 19:45 SNA 22:19 25% 6% 0.9% 84%
AA 529 American Flight history → ORD 15:21 LAX 17:43 25% 10% 1.0% 59%
DL 1775 Delta ORD 19:03 LAX 21:28 25% 9% 0.8% no record
UA 1317 United Flight history → ORD 16:16 SNA 18:50 25% 10% 0.6% 70%
UA 1967 United Flight history → ORD 18:10 LAX 20:42 26% 13% 1.4% 69%
UA 658 United Flight history → ORD 20:18 ONT 22:51 26% 12% 0.9% 60%
AA 3063 American Flight history → ORD 19:48 LAX 22:13 27% 9% 1.2% 58%
AA 2364 American Flight history → ORD 19:08 LAX 21:33 28% 10% 1.1% 59%
AA 1179 American Flight history → ORD 17:50 SNA 20:25 30% 8% 3.4% 74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666 59m Denver DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666 6h 07m 94% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON