tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 69 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4525 at 05:08 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 4525 MDW 05:08 → LGA 08:10 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2458 ORD 18:25 → LGA 21:34 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time
Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
WN 4525 Southwest MDW 05:08 LGA 08:10 2% 1% 0.7% no record
YX 5662 Republic ORD 05:58 JFK 09:18 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 802 Southwest MDW 07:17 LGA 10:25 4% 1% 0.7% no record
DL 2767 Delta Flight history → ORD 06:00 LGA 09:09 5% 2% 0.6% 92%
UA 2659 United ORD 06:07 EWR 09:15 6% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 2617 United Flight history → ORD 06:00 LGA 09:11 6% 2% 0.6% 89%
AA 1264 American Flight history → ORD 05:54 LGA 09:00 6% 2% 0.7% 62%
AA 4590 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 08:02 JFK 11:33 6% 2% 0.6% 70%
WN 3010 Southwest MDW 09:34 LGA 12:41 6% 2% 0.7% no record
AA 699 American ORD 06:48 EWR 10:15 6% 2% 0.8% no record
DL 2633 Delta Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:14 7% 2% 0.7% 77%
UA 2759 United Flight history → ORD 04:50 EWR 07:54 8% 2% 0.7% 47%
UA 1657 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:17 8% 2% 0.6% 82%
AA 2723 American Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:16 8% 2% 0.7% 79%
UA 1273 United ORD 07:46 EWR 10:54 8% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 2941 American ORD 08:16 LGA 11:43 10% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 2092 United Flight history → ORD 08:00 LGA 11:17 10% 2% 0.6% 86%
DL 1642 Delta ORD 09:32 LGA 12:46 10% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 2238 United ORD 09:20 EWR 12:33 11% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 2985 Delta Flight history → ORD 11:30 LGA 15:00 12% 3% 0.7% 78%
UA 669 United Flight history → ORD 10:03 LGA 13:26 12% 3% 0.7% 82%
UA 1856 United Flight history → ORD 10:51 EWR 14:17 13% 3% 0.7% 80%
UA 606 United Flight history → ORD 12:16 EWR 15:44 13% 4% 0.7% 78%
UA 1258 United Flight history → ORD 09:20 LGA 12:33 13% 3% 0.7% 76%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history → ORD 10:30 LGA 13:48 13% 3% 0.7% 72%
AA 3128 American Flight history → ORD 10:04 LGA 13:23 14% 3% 0.7% 71%
B6 1006 JetBlue ORD 10:59 JFK 14:16 14% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 1209 United Flight history → ORD 21:30 EWR 00:53 14% 4% 0.7% 68%
UA 759 United Flight history → ORD 20:07 EWR 23:39 15% 5% 0.7% 65%
UA 529 United ORD 11:12 LGA 14:33 15% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 4797 Southwest MDW 13:22 LGA 16:23 16% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 786 United ORD 12:12 LGA 15:25 16% 5% 0.7% no record
AA 2416 American ORD 11:00 EWR 14:09 17% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 903 American ORD 11:55 LGA 15:09 18% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 2751 Southwest MDW 15:04 LGA 18:05 18% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 2485 American Flight history → ORD 13:39 JFK 17:05 19% 6% 0.7% 65%
AA 3225 American ORD 11:30 JFK 14:44 19% 6% 0.7% no record
DL 2503 Delta Flight history → ORD 20:10 LGA 23:44 19% 5% 0.7% 58%
AA 2224 American ORD 16:03 JFK 19:35 20% 6% 0.7% no record
AA 3163 American Flight history → ORD 12:49 LGA 16:17 20% 5% 0.7% 68%
UA 1630 United Flight history → ORD 17:23 EWR 20:42 22% 6% 0.7% 70%
AA 1936 American Flight history → ORD 13:10 EWR 16:30 22% 6% 0.8% 65%
DL 1631 Delta ORD 14:32 LGA 17:45 22% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 1582 Southwest MDW 19:04 LGA 22:11 22% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 4236 Southwest MDW 17:45 LGA 20:53 22% 5% 0.7% no record
AA 1166 American Flight history → ORD 20:29 LGA 23:56 22% 6% 0.7% 52%
AA 2549 American Flight history → ORD 20:09 EWR 23:30 22% 6% 0.8% 45%
UA 2189 United Flight history → ORD 13:00 LGA 16:22 23% 6% 0.7% 65%
UA 249 United ORD 16:16 EWR 19:34 23% 5% 0.7% no record
DL 1390 Delta Flight history → ORD 19:05 LGA 22:34 24% 6% 0.7% 64%
UA 1236 United ORD 14:58 EWR 18:04 24% 5% 0.7% no record
UA 2790 United ORD 18:25 EWR 21:35 25% 7% 0.7% no record
UA 1821 United Flight history → ORD 14:00 LGA 17:22 25% 7% 0.7% 65%
UA 2827 United ORD 20:35 LGA 23:49 25% 6% 0.7% no record
UA 2605 United Flight history → ORD 20:45 LGA 23:54 25% 6% 0.7% 54%
AA 866 American ORD 15:14 LGA 18:42 26% 7% 0.7% no record
UA 2466 United ORD 14:11 EWR 17:16 26% 6% 0.7% no record
AA 512 American ORD 15:31 LGA 18:50 26% 6% 0.7% no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history → ORD 17:39 LGA 20:53 27% 6% 0.7% 57%
AA 3253 American Flight history → ORD 17:36 EWR 21:00 28% 8% 0.8% 47%
UA 511 United ORD 16:16 LGA 19:34 28% 7% 0.7% no record
UA 2133 United ORD 14:56 LGA 18:07 30% 6% 0.7% no record
AA 673 American Flight history → ORD 16:42 LGA 20:12 30% 8% 0.7% 47%
UA 456 United ORD 17:16 LGA 20:34 30% 9% 0.7% no record
AA 774 American Flight history → ORD 18:04 LGA 21:22 33% 9% 0.7% 58%
UA 2458 United Flight history → ORD 18:25 LGA 21:34 37% 9% 0.7% 46%
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ORD 10:05 JFK 13:30 27% 16% 6.2% 73%
DL 5035 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ORD 13:00 JFK 16:37 29% 14% 11.6% 71%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ORD 18:00 JFK 21:40 51% 22% 23.6% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON