Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 52 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 961 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 961 MDW 06:34 → BWI 09:29 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2761 ORD 17:16 → DCA 20:19 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 961 Southwest	MDW 06:34	BWI 09:29	2%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 2608 Southwest	MDW 06:06	DCA 09:02	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 3292 Southwest	MDW 09:23	BWI 12:18	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
YX 4494 Republic	ORD 06:16	DCA 09:35	7%	3%	1.6%	no record
WN 1295 Southwest	MDW 08:24	DCA 11:21	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 495 American	ORD 06:59	DCA 10:14	9%	3%	1.6%	no record
WN 294 Southwest	MDW 12:41	BWI 15:36	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:15	BWI 10:27	10%	3%	2.3%	93%
WN 2689 Southwest	MDW 17:11	BWI 20:06	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 4832 Southwest	MDW 15:09	BWI 18:04	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 1269 United Flight history →	ORD 07:46	BWI 10:40	13%	4%	0.8%	94%
AA 4253 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:13	BWI 13:25	13%	4%	1.4%	78%
UA 482 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	DCA 09:59	14%	5%	1.0%	86%
UA 2277 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	IAD 11:52	14%	4%	0.8%	92%
UA 1077 United Flight history →	ORD 07:28	DCA 10:26	14%	5%	1.0%	92%
UA 1486 United	ORD 11:08	IAD 14:08	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3946 Southwest	MDW 12:54	DCA 15:50	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2653 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	BWI 13:57	15%	5%	0.7%	83%
WN 120 Southwest	MDW 11:06	DCA 14:02	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
YX 4758 Republic	ORD 14:29	BWI 17:39	16%	7%	1.6%	no record
WN 4931 Southwest	MDW 20:24	DCA 23:12	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 1904 United	ORD 10:14	DCA 13:19	18%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 315 American	ORD 09:57	DCA 13:13	18%	8%	1.7%	no record
AA 1200 American Flight history →	ORD 10:39	DCA 13:44	19%	8%	1.4%	61%
UA 1705 United Flight history →	ORD 08:13	DCA 11:12	19%	6%	1.0%	90%
WN 336 Southwest	MDW 16:18	DCA 19:14	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1922 United	ORD 21:45	IAD 00:36	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 523 American Flight history →	ORD 08:58	DCA 12:08	20%	7%	1.8%	79%
AA 2345 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	DCA 10:59	20%	5%	1.8%	77%
UA 2668 United Flight history →	ORD 11:15	DCA 14:22	21%	9%	0.8%	69%
UA 2737 United	ORD 14:46	BWI 17:52	22%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 535 American	ORD 20:49	DCA 23:55	22%	10%	2.2%	no record
UA 587 United Flight history →	ORD 14:24	IAD 17:15	22%	7%	0.7%	73%
UA 1128 United	ORD 13:07	IAD 16:10	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:13	BWI 21:22	22%	11%	4.9%	79%
UA 202 United	ORD 09:20	DCA 12:19	23%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 752 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	DCA 15:52	23%	10%	0.9%	65%
AA 789 American	ORD 13:19	DCA 16:40	24%	11%	1.9%	no record
UA 1314 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	DCA 17:12	24%	11%	0.8%	56%
UA 304 United	ORD 19:40	IAD 22:30	24%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1941 United Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DCA 18:11	24%	11%	1.0%	66%
UA 3902 United	ORD 17:16	IAD 20:12	25%	11%	2.4%	no record
UA 2160 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DCA 22:54	25%	12%	1.1%	56%
UA 2202 United Flight history →	ORD 18:12	IAD 21:22	25%	12%	1.6%	57%
AA 2769 American Flight history →	ORD 14:55	DCA 18:00	25%	11%	1.4%	74%
UA 2812 United	ORD 16:16	DCA 19:20	26%	13%	0.9%	no record
AA 489 American Flight history →	ORD 17:04	DCA 20:21	26%	16%	4.4%	70%
AA 1187 American Flight history →	ORD 18:59	DCA 22:15	26%	15%	4.3%	58%
AA 514 American	ORD 17:58	DCA 21:15	28%	16%	4.5%	no record
UA 1369 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	DCA 21:10	29%	15%	1.7%	50%
UA 1557 United	ORD 18:11	BWI 21:11	30%	16%	1.4%	no record
UA 2761 United	ORD 17:16	DCA 20:19	31%	16%	3.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON