Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1731 CHS 10:30 → CLT 11:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1586 CHS 19:33 → CLT 20:43 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1731 American Flight history →	CHS 10:30	CLT 11:41	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
OH 5562 PSA	CHS 06:25	CLT 07:35	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5309 PSA	CHS 12:19	CLT 13:28	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3298 American Flight history →	CHS 07:53	CLT 09:00	8%	2%	0.7%	98%
AA 3117 American Flight history →	CHS 17:33	CLT 18:48	11%	4%	0.7%	54%
OH 5166 PSA	CHS 14:10	CLT 15:17	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1586 American Flight history →	CHS 19:33	CLT 20:43	13%	3%	0.7%	76%
AA 5817 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 08:48	CLT 10:15	7%	0%	0.0%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON