Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1435 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1435 CHS 06:47 → DFW 08:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2166 CHS 16:35 → DFW 18:27 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1435 American Flight history →	CHS 06:47	DFW 08:27	9%	3%	1.0%	92%
AA 2158 American	CHS 13:03	DFW 14:48	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2166 American Flight history →	CHS 16:35	DFW 18:27	24%	6%	0.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON