Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5445 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 5445 CHS 05:58 → JFK 08:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 5200 CHS 17:25 → JFK 19:24 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5445 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHS 05:58	JFK 08:02	4%	2%	0.9%	91%
DL 5015 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHS 12:47	JFK 14:46	10%	3%	1.2%	76%
B6 2474 JetBlue Flight history →	CHS 10:58	JFK 12:59	11%	4%	0.8%	78%
DL 5200 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHS 17:25	JFK 19:24	18%	5%	1.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON