Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1763 at 07:03, 9%.

Nonstops that day


AA 1763 American Flight history →	CHS 07:03	MIA 08:54	9%	3%	0.9%	96%
AA 2152 American	CHS 16:24	MIA 18:13	37%	11%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 47m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 47m	99%	90%
United Details →	CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289	1h 10m Newark	EWR 09:09 → MIA 12:22UA 2785	6h 22m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	CHS 08:20 → ATL 09:34DL 789	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:33DL 1323	7h 13m	100%	86%
American Details →	CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont	3h 20m Charlotte	CLT 13:35 → MIA 15:46AA 1198	6h 58m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	CHS 18:28 → ATL 19:46DL 2174	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 27m	99%	84%
American Details →	CHS 06:47 → DFW 08:27AA 1435	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:28 → MIA 14:33AA 1454	7h 46m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:00 → JFK 08:01DL 5445 · flown by Endeavor	3h 07m New York	JFK 11:08 → MIA 14:22DL 1514	8h 22m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON