Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2333 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2333 CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2680 CHS 16:55 → ORD 18:19 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2333 United Flight history →	CHS 06:00	ORD 07:33	8%	3%	1.7%	87%
AA 3187 American	CHS 07:15	ORD 08:41	14%	6%	1.9%	no record
UA 2821 United	CHS 11:23	ORD 12:50	15%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 2154 American	CHS 13:58	ORD 15:25	21%	9%	1.3%	no record
UA 5729 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHS 18:58	ORD 20:29	22%	12%	2.6%	57%
MQ 3868 Envoy	CHS 19:46	ORD 21:20	22%	8%	2.9%	no record
UA 2680 United	CHS 16:55	ORD 18:19	27%	12%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON