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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 33m 100% 92%
AmericanDetails → CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont 1h 43m Charlotte CLT 11:58 → STL 12:54AA 3096 5h 06m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → CHS 08:20 → ATL 09:34DL 789 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 4h 57m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289 1h 55m Newark EWR 09:54 → STL 11:30UA 2311 6h 30m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33UA 2333 3h 21m Chicago ORD 10:54 → STL 12:21UA 1044 7h 21m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CHS 18:28 → ATL 19:46DL 2174 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 6h 25m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CHS 14:27 → ATL 15:43DL 2179 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → STL 20:06DL 2833 6h 39m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:07DL 543 5h 49m 99% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON