Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, MQ 3345 at 13:41, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3345 Envoy	CID 13:41	DCA 17:10	11%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CID 05:10 → ORD 06:25AA 3430 · flown by Envoy	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 09:57 → DCA 13:12AA 315	7h 02m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CID 06:33 → MSP 07:46DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 15m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	5h 57m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	CID 16:14 → MSP 17:27DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	6h 42m	99%	86%
American Details →	CID 04:58 → DFW 07:11AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:33AA 2399	7h 35m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CID 12:04 → MSP 13:17DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	5h 05m	94%	81%
American Details →	CID 10:01 → CLT 13:14AA 1039	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 16:44 → DCA 18:27AA 2002	7h 26m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON