Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4679 CID 05:45 → DEN 06:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 514 CID 15:16 → DEN 16:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4679 SkyWest	CID 05:45	DEN 06:47	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1500 United Flight history →	CID 08:50	DEN 10:04	9%	3%	0.8%	82%
UA 5273 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CID 18:05	DEN 19:29	11%	4%	0.7%	50%
UA 514 United Flight history →	CID 15:16	DEN 16:30	11%	3%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON