Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3430 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3430 CID 05:10 → ORD 06:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 5615 CID 18:46 → ORD 20:04 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3430 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 05:10	ORD 06:25	6%	3%	0.9%	91%
MQ 3732 Envoy	CID 11:56	ORD 13:34	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
G7 4482 GoJet	CID 10:57	ORD 12:27	9%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 1796 United	CID 05:54	ORD 07:03	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3385 Envoy	CID 20:39	ORD 22:03	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 2401 United	CID 08:01	ORD 09:10	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 6285 SkyWest	CID 13:46	ORD 15:16	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
OO 4777 SkyWest	CID 16:05	ORD 17:24	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
OO 5615 SkyWest	CID 18:46	ORD 20:04	23%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON