Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4983 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CID 07:50	PHX 09:16	8%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 3809 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 14:30	PHX 15:57	10%	2%	0.8%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 06:33 → MSP 07:46DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	3h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	8h 13m	99%	90%
American Details →	CID 04:58 → DFW 07:11AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:47 → PHX 10:54AA 2315	7h 56m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 13m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	CID 12:04 → MSP 13:17DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	1h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	6h 05m	95%	86%
United Details →	CID 08:50 → DEN 10:04UA 1500	3h 23m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PHX 14:33UA 631	7h 43m	98%	85%
American Details →	CID 12:34 → DFW 14:47AA 4297 · flown by Envoy	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:32 → PHX 17:15AA 1232	6h 41m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	CID 16:14 → MSP 17:27DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297	5h 52m	93%	83%
American Details →	CID 05:10 → ORD 06:25AA 3430 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769	5h 59m	94%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON