Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5684 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 5684 CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 5641 CLE 17:50 → BOS 19:58 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5684 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 06:05	BOS 08:07	6%	2%	0.9%	92%
B6 1340 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 09:18	BOS 11:21	14%	5%	1.0%	88%
DL 5674 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 11:15	BOS 13:14	15%	5%	0.9%	90%
B6 2040 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 11:32	BOS 13:35	21%	8%	1.2%	81%
DL 5641 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 17:50	BOS 19:58	38%	23%	3.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON