Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 5210 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 5210 CLE 05:40 → DCA 06:58 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OH 5091 CLE 19:36 → DCA 21:07 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5210 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 05:40	DCA 06:58	8%	3%	0.8%	95%
AA 5413 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 09:27	DCA 10:58	11%	4%	0.8%	80%
MQ 3915 Envoy	CLE 16:32	DCA 18:04	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5535 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 13:54	DCA 15:32	19%	6%	0.8%	69%
OH 5091 PSA	CLE 19:36	DCA 21:07	24%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON