Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4915 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4915 CLE 06:52 → DEN 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3550 CLE 18:04 → DEN 19:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4915 Southwest	CLE 06:52	DEN 08:05	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2246 United Flight history →	CLE 11:10	DEN 12:26	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 499 Delta	CLE 10:16	DEN 11:32	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 690 United Flight history →	CLE 08:55	DEN 10:10	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 486 United Flight history →	CLE 16:38	DEN 18:03	14%	4%	0.6%	82%
WN 3550 Southwest	CLE 18:04	DEN 19:20	22%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON