Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 601 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 601 CLE 07:15 → EWR 08:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1274 CLE 19:24 → EWR 20:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 601 United Flight history →	CLE 07:15	EWR 08:47	5%	2%	1.4%	94%
UA 2468 United Flight history →	CLE 08:19	EWR 09:52	7%	3%	1.3%	92%
UA 2782 United	CLE 12:50	EWR 14:37	21%	11%	1.3%	no record
UA 1892 United Flight history →	CLE 15:19	EWR 17:00	29%	13%	1.5%	77%
YX 3658 Republic	CLE 17:15	EWR 19:16	31%	12%	5.8%	no record
UA 1274 United	CLE 19:24	EWR 20:54	33%	13%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON