Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 715 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 715 CLE 07:30 → FLL 10:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 3736 CLE 21:04 → FLL 00:04 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 715 United Flight history →	CLE 07:30	FLL 10:14	8%	3%	0.8%	94%
B6 2289 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 07:50	FLL 10:45	13%	5%	1.4%	95%
F9 3736 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 21:04	FLL 00:04	22%	9%	2.8%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON