Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 2–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1252 CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest YV 4018 CLE 20:00 → IAD 21:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1252 United Flight history →	CLE 06:00	IAD 07:15	2%	1%	0.5%	97%
YV 3999 Mesa	CLE 10:34	IAD 12:12	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 780 United Flight history →	CLE 15:02	IAD 16:20	8%	2%	0.5%	84%
YV 4018 Mesa	CLE 20:00	IAD 21:43	10%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON