tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 08:55, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1141 Southwest CLE 13:51 LAS 15:17 8% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:02DL 1357 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 31m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 25m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → LAS 14:49DL 659 9h 44m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 49m Dulles IAD 09:04 → LAS 11:12UA 1323 8h 12m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 57m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → CLE 12:37 → ATL 14:29DL 2978 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:50DL 919 10h 13m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:55 → DEN 10:10UA 690 3h 22m Denver DEN 13:32 → LAS 14:41UA 493 8h 46m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → CLE 05:52 → IAH 07:48UA 1645 3h 07m Houston IAH 10:55 → LAS 12:14UA 1799 9h 22m 100% 91%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor 48m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 6h 02m 74% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON