Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1041 United	CLE 07:22	LAX 09:29	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 679 United Flight history →	CLE 15:42	LAX 17:38	11%	5%	0.6%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	9h 07m	100%	91%
United Details →	CLE 05:52 → IAH 07:48UA 1645	2h 05m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	8h 38m	99%	90%
United Details →	CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252	2h 06m Dulles	IAD 09:21 → LAX 11:51UA 657	8h 51m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	9h 20m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CLE 07:28 → SLC 09:26DL 2207	2h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	7h 59m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:02DL 1357	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 10m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	9h 02m	98%	88%
United Details →	CLE 08:55 → DEN 10:10UA 690	3h 16m Denver	DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774	9h 02m	100%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLE 15:03 → PHL 16:43AA 5861 · flown by Piedmont	53m Philadelphia	PHL 17:36 → LAX 20:24AA 3123	8h 21m	61%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON