Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4677 at 05:18 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34%.

Safest bet that day AA 4677 CLE 05:18 → LGA 06:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest YX 4505 CLE 20:00 → LGA 21:49 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4677 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 05:18	LGA 06:59	6%	3%	2.4%	91%
YX 4372 Republic	CLE 12:27	LGA 14:16	28%	15%	4.3%	no record
YX 5773 Republic	CLE 12:57	LGA 14:46	28%	15%	4.1%	no record
YX 5767 Republic	CLE 16:22	LGA 18:12	34%	21%	6.1%	no record
YX 4505 Republic	CLE 20:00	LGA 21:49	34%	17%	5.8%	no record
DL 5177 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 06:00	LGA 07:42	13%	7%	6.3%	87%
DL 5242 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 16:15	LGA 18:00	16%	10%	10.6%	84%
DL 5193 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 10:17	LGA 11:59	19%	15%	2.1%	81%
DL 5045 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 13:00	LGA 14:51	26%	14%	7.5%	74%
DL 5174 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 19:26	LGA 21:14	46%	28%	18.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON