Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 2887 at 06:01, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2887 American Flight history →	CLE 06:01	MIA 09:00	8%	2%	1.0%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 22m	98%	89%
United Details →	CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252	1h 30m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 35m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 57m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:02DL 1357	2h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 09:04 → MIA 13:39DL 793	7h 39m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:33DL 1323	7h 28m	100%	83%
American Details →	CLE 06:00 → PHL 07:45AA 3302	3h 49m Philadelphia	PHL 11:34 → MIA 14:34AA 1989	8h 34m	99%	82%
American Details →	CLE 05:40 → DCA 06:59AA 5210 · flown by PSA	3h 05m Washington	DCA 10:04 → MIA 13:03AA 401	7h 23m	93%	82%
American Details →	CLE 05:18 → LGA 06:59AA 4677 · flown by Republic	1h 00m New York	LGA 07:59 → MIA 11:14AA 970	5h 56m	94%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLE 17:15 → DFW 19:18AA 1554	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → MIA 00:08 +1AA 2090	6h 53m	67%	49%
Delta Details →	CLE 17:15 → JFK 19:09DL 4975 · flown by Endeavor	46m New York	JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428	6h 22m	60%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON