Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2112 at 05:08 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 2112 CLE 05:08 → ORD 05:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4904 CLE 17:21 → ORD 18:03 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2112 United	CLE 05:08	ORD 05:38	7%	3%	1.1%	no record
MQ 3841 Envoy	CLE 05:31	ORD 06:04	11%	4%	3.2%	no record
UA 490 United Flight history →	CLE 07:00	ORD 07:36	13%	4%	1.5%	86%
UA 472 United	CLE 10:48	ORD 11:25	17%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 09:44	ORD 10:30	17%	7%	3.2%	76%
UA 656 United Flight history →	CLE 08:55	ORD 09:28	18%	6%	1.3%	90%
UA 2443 United Flight history →	CLE 14:05	ORD 14:41	21%	10%	0.9%	68%
OO 6319 SkyWest	CLE 15:05	ORD 15:48	23%	8%	3.5%	no record
OO 4932 SkyWest	CLE 13:03	ORD 13:31	25%	8%	2.8%	no record
OO 4689 SkyWest	CLE 12:32	ORD 13:11	25%	10%	2.7%	no record
UA 8223 United	CLE 16:18	ORD 16:51	31%	12%	2.0%	no record
MQ 3912 Envoy	CLE 20:49	ORD 21:23	31%	9%	9.0%	no record
OO 4748 SkyWest	CLE 19:45	ORD 20:15	33%	11%	5.5%	no record
UA 1673 United Flight history →	CLE 18:05	ORD 18:44	35%	11%	1.4%	53%
OO 4904 SkyWest	CLE 17:21	ORD 18:03	36%	12%	7.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON