tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:02DL 1357 2h 26m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 43m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → CLE 06:00 → DFW 08:02AA 1590 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:47 → PHX 10:54AA 2315 7h 54m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 37m Dulles IAD 08:52 → PHX 10:50UA 709 7h 50m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 28m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 13m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → CLE 06:00 → PHL 07:45AA 3302 1h 42m Philadelphia PHL 09:27 → PHX 11:38AA 2644 8h 38m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246 3h 09m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 8h 25m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → CLE 05:52 → IAH 07:48UA 1645 1h 52m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 7h 42m 99% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON