tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1250 United CLE 08:55 SFO 11:23 7% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 2817 United CLE 19:13 SFO 21:32 15% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 2h 34m Dulles IAD 09:49 → SFO 12:38UA 1773 9h 38m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 7h 45m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:30 → FLL 10:14UA 715 2h 17m Fort Lauderdale FLL 12:31 → SFO 15:43UA 1267 11h 13m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:02DL 1357 3h 58m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 98% 86%
JetBlueDetails → CLE 06:25 → JFK 08:02B6 2769 2h 28m New York JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215 10h 43m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:55 → DEN 10:10UA 690 3h 15m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 9h 14m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:28 → SLC 09:26DL 2207 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 7h 35m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672 7h 50m 96% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor 48m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 6h 51m 74% 61%
UnitedDetails → CLE 15:19 → EWR 17:00UA 1892 1h 00m Newark EWR 18:00 → SFO 21:28UA 1844 9h 09m 71% 44%
UnitedDetails → CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673 54m Chicago ORD 19:38 → SFO 23:17UA 649 8h 12m 58% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON