tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1147 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1147 Southwest CLE 07:16 STL 07:55 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4142 Southwest CLE 19:22 STL 20:01 14% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 08m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:02DL 1357 2h 02m Minneapolis MSP 09:04 → STL 10:43DL 1289 5h 43m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 12m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → CLE 06:00 → PHL 07:45AA 3302 1h 18m Philadelphia PHL 09:03 → STL 10:42AA 1739 5h 42m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLE 18:08 → ATL 20:13DL 880 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 6h 45m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:07DL 543 6h 52m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → CLE 14:40 → ATL 16:35DL 775 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → STL 20:06DL 2833 6h 26m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → CLE 12:37 → ATL 14:29DL 2978 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 6h 16m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673 57m Chicago ORD 19:41 → STL 20:58UA 1625 3h 53m 62% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON