tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
F9 1491 Frontier Flight history → CLE 20:43 TPA 23:34 18% 8% 1.3% 64%
F9 2919 Frontier Flight history → CLE 14:04 TPA 16:38 22% 8% 1.6% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227 4h 32m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 08m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 45m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 5h 32m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:15 → EWR 08:47UA 601 3h 13m Newark EWR 12:00 → TPA 15:06UA 601 7h 51m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 5h 34m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:18 → LGA 06:59AA 4677 · flown by Republic 1h 11m New York LGA 08:10 → TPA 11:10AA 1976 5h 52m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:19 → EWR 09:52UA 2468 2h 35m Newark EWR 12:27 → TPA 15:28UA 1273 7h 09m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 5h 20m 99% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLE 13:00 → LGA 14:47DL 5045 · flown by Endeavor 52m New York LGA 15:39 → TPA 18:54DL 2404 5h 54m 70% 52%
DeltaDetails → CLE 17:15 → JFK 19:09DL 4975 · flown by Endeavor 46m New York JFK 19:55 → TPA 23:20DL 1636 6h 05m 60% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON