Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4368 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 4368 CLT 07:02 → BNA 07:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 519 CLT 17:03 → BNA 17:38 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4368 Southwest	CLT 07:02	BNA 07:23	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4015 Southwest	CLT 11:10	BNA 11:27	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1295 American	CLT 10:42	BNA 11:14	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2409 American	CLT 11:59	BNA 12:28	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 538 American	CLT 13:15	BNA 13:44	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1644 American Flight history →	CLT 21:59	BNA 22:25	11%	3%	0.6%	62%
AA 526 American Flight history →	CLT 20:44	BNA 21:15	13%	3%	0.6%	71%
AA 519 American Flight history →	CLT 17:03	BNA 17:38	16%	5%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON