Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5648 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 5648 CLT 06:05 → BOS 08:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1155 CLT 16:19 → BOS 18:52 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5648 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 06:05	BOS 08:31	5%	2%	0.8%	92%
AA 1151 American	CLT 08:35	BOS 10:58	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 5626 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 09:40	BOS 12:06	11%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 2263 American	CLT 10:14	BOS 12:31	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 5630 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 13:20	BOS 15:56	23%	10%	1.1%	73%
AA 1140 American	CLT 12:29	BOS 14:53	24%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 1843 American Flight history →	CLT 19:59	BOS 22:18	30%	14%	1.2%	71%
AA 901 American Flight history →	CLT 14:27	BOS 16:59	32%	12%	1.0%	82%worse than usual
DL 5837 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:34	BOS 20:15	33%	19%	1.5%	64%
AA 2595 American Flight history →	CLT 18:34	BOS 20:59	35%	15%	1.2%	59%
AA 1155 American	CLT 16:19	BOS 18:52	39%	22%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON