Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4016 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4016 CLT 08:30 → BWI 10:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1318 CLT 20:01 → BWI 21:34 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4016 Southwest	CLT 08:30	BWI 10:02	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1216 American	CLT 08:26	BWI 10:03	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2733 American Flight history →	CLT 12:35	BWI 14:11	12%	3%	0.8%	87%
WN 3535 Southwest	CLT 13:34	BWI 15:04	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3121 American	CLT 16:17	BWI 17:55	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2855 American Flight history →	CLT 18:09	BWI 19:47	20%	6%	0.8%	76%
AA 1318 American Flight history →	CLT 20:01	BWI 21:34	20%	6%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON